Higher education
Your next student is deciding now, weeks before the inquiry form.
Your CRM shows who inquired, applied and deposited. Purchased name lists show who fits a profile. Neither shows who is weighing a return right now, or what is holding them back. Moonbrush reads the open search, the drive behind it and the capacity to follow through, and splits every pool by why people would enroll.
The decisionWhether to go back to school, which program, and when to apply.
01Pressures
What enrollment marketers are up against
The traditional-age pool has peaked, graduate financing just changed, and nearly every school now wants the same working adults.
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The 18-year-old pool has peaked
High school graduates peaked in 2025 and decline from here. Schools that never courted adults now chase the same working learners, often with the same ads.
13%
Projected decline in U.S. high school graduates from the 2025 peak through 2041.Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door, 11th edition, 2024. Projections through 2041, published December 2024. -
Graduate financing changed under you
Since July 1, 2026, new graduate borrowers can’t take Grad PLUS loans, and federal borrowing is capped. Master’s programs that leaned on easy financing now have to make the case on value.
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Leads cost more and convert less
Aggregator leads are often sold to several schools at once, so the first call wins. Counselors spend the week dialing people who were never close to applying.
02Blind spot
Your funnel starts at the inquiry. The decision doesn’t.
What your data shows
Your CRM
Inquiries, applications, deposits and starts.
Purchased name lists
Who fits a profile, bought by the thousand.
Search and social
Who clicked an ad this week.
What it can’t show
Who is weighing a return now
Adults pricing programs, weeks before any form.
What stalls them
Cost, timing or the fear that earned credits won’t count.
When each cohort decides
The hours and weeks each group actually researches and applies.
What Moonbrush adds
Moonbrush reads program, aid and career research across 270M+ U.S. adults, matches your inquiry file as delivered, and returns every pool split by readiness and reason, with the timing windows each cohort keeps.
03Decision
The enrollment decision, start to finish
For an adult learner, the funnel you can see is the last third of the decision.
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01
A reason appears
A promotion ceiling, a layoff, a child starting school.
We read
Career-change and credential research.
You can
Reach them while the idea is forming.
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02
Quiet research
Programs, outcomes and is-it-worth-it comparisons, weeks before any form.
We read
Program, format and outcome research.
You can
Make your program part of the shortlist early.
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03
Pricing it out
Aid, employer tuition benefits and transfer credit. This is where many stall.
We read
Financial aid and transfer-credit research.
You can
Send aid answers and a credit evaluation before they ask.
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04
Inquiry and application
Two or three schools are left. Counselors call.
We read
Your inquiry file, split by readiness.
You can
Have counselors call the ready first.
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05
The start
Deposit, registration, the first class.
We read
Applications and starts from your CRM.
You can
Read starts against a holdout.
04Calendar
When enrollment decisions concentrate
Adult and online programs may start every few weeks, but research, aid and budgets still bunch around the same few dates.
January
Spring start
Spring terms begin, and the late-fall inquiry pool either registers or slips to summer. Many employers reset tuition benefits with the calendar year.
With MoonbrushRead who in your fall inquiry pool is still researching, and put aid and employer-benefit answers in front of cost-first comparers before registration closes.
March to June
Budget season
Next year’s enrollment goals and marketing budgets get set before the fiscal year turns on July 1 at most schools.
With MoonbrushSize each cohort against the full population in your footprint, so next year’s plan rests on who is deciding now, not last year’s inquiry counts.
May to August
Deposits and melt
Most freshmen deposit by May 1, and some never arrive in the fall. Adult and transfer admits drift over the summer too.
With MoonbrushRe-read fall admits each month and route the ones going quiet to an advisor, with the stall to answer: cost, credit or schedule.
July
New aid year
The federal award year starts July 1, and new aid rules take effect with it. Fall aid packages and payment plans get settled over the summer.
With MoonbrushWhen aid rules change, re-read the cost-first cohort and update its message, so net-cost answers match what students can now borrow.
August to September
Fall start and census
The biggest start of the year, and the census count the cabinet reads. Anyone who hasn’t registered by now is a spring prospect.
With MoonbrushRead the proof against your holdout: applications started and cost per application, then starts at census.
Late September to October
FAFSA opens
Next year’s FAFSA must open by October 1, and it opened in late September in both 2025 and 2026. Adults planning a fall start begin pricing now.
With MoonbrushFlag who in your inquiry pool is researching aid, and put net-cost answers in front of cost-first comparers while they price.
05Cohorts
Same age, same ZIP, same unfinished degree. Three different reasons.
Three adults who look identical in a name list need three different conversations.
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Credential climbers
Need the degree for the next role.
- What holds them back
- Can’t see how it fits around work.
- What they answer to
- Format, pace and what employers recognize.
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Cost-first comparers
Will go back if the numbers work.
- What holds them back
- Don’t know what aid or their employer covers.
- What they answer to
- Net cost and aid, in the first conversation.
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Credit worriers
Started once and want it to count.
- What holds them back
- Fear their credits won’t transfer.
- What they answer to
- A transcript evaluation and credit for prior learning, up front.
Illustrative cohorts, shaped like the splits we return.
06Lessons
What we’ve learned in this market.
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The pool is large, and it isn’t one audience.
Tens of millions of working-age Americans started a degree and stopped. They didn’t stop for one reason, and they won’t come back for one message.
37.6M
Working-age Americans with some college and no credential.Source: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, Some College, No Credential, June 2025. Start of the 2023–24 academic year. -
The decision starts before your funnel does.
By the time someone fills out an inquiry form, they are usually comparing two or three schools. The research that decided the shortlist happened weeks earlier, where name lists can’t see it.
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Timing is a lever, not a detail.
Each cohort researches and applies in its own windows. Moving media and counselor outreach into those windows can lower the cost of an application without buying more reach.
07Plays
Three places to prove it first.
Each is scoped to one decision, measured against a holdout you choose and read out on day 60.
Usually through
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Reach stop-outs inside your footprint
Find adults with credits and no credential by state and ZIP, then separate credential climbers from cost-first comparers who need aid answers.
What you getStop-out audiences inside your footprint, each with the message it answers to.
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Work the inquiry pool by readiness
Match your CRM export and split it into ready applicants, aid-first planners and those gone quiet, so counselors call the ready first.
What you getA readiness label and a reason on every inquiry, returned to your CRM.
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Reach them when they’re deciding
Read when each cohort researches and applies, and move media and counselor outreach into those windows, away from the weekday-daytime default.
What you getTiming windows per cohort, for media flighting and counselor schedules.
In the workspace.
Ask the way your team talksDescribe the adults you want in plain English. stage turns the brief into filters, sizes the pool against the graph and shows the models that set it apart.
A stage screen with demo values.
08Metrics
The numbers the cabinet asks about every term
Enrollment leaders answer for the funnel term by term, from the first inquiry to the census count.
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Inquiry-to-application
The share of inquirers who go on to apply. It shows whether the leads you paid for were ever close to deciding.
With MoonbrushEach inquiry comes back with a readiness label and a reason, so you can read the rate by cohort and by lead source.
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Contact rate
The share of new inquiries a counselor actually reaches. It drops quickly as a lead ages.
With MoonbrushCounselors call the ready first, in the windows each cohort keeps, instead of working the list top to bottom in weekday office hours.
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Melt
Deposited or registered students who never attend the first class. Freshmen melt over the summer; online starts melt in the days before census.
With MoonbrushRun admitted adults through the same read to see who has gone quiet and why, so advisors reach them before the term starts.
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Cost per start
Marketing and recruitment spend divided by new students who actually start. For adult and online programs it’s the number finance watches.
With MoonbrushSpend moves to the cohorts that apply, when they apply, read against a holdout, so a change in cost per start can be traced to the audience, not the season.
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Stop-out re-enrollment
Former students with credits and no credential who come back and register. You already hold their transcripts, so the first conversation can be about what’s left.
With MoonbrushMoonbrush shows which of your stop-outs are pricing programs again and why, so outreach leads with credit, cost or schedule.
09Proof
How you’ll know it worked.
What we measureApplications started and cost per application, read against a holdout you choose.
Proof in this market
0.87AUC
5.04×top-decile lift
From one full higher-education retrain cycle.
Moonbrush-reported results. Study details and the acceptance record are available under NDA.
The first 60 days
- Week 0
Agree on the decision, the data and the success criteria. Paperwork includes the data use agreement and the acceptance criteria.
- Weeks 1–2
Match keys and attach scores in the clean room or your warehouse. Your match rate is reported before anything is built.
- Weeks 3–8
Activate in your channels against a holdout you choose. Outcomes return as they happen.
- Day 60
Read-out on lift and impact, with the validation report. Then an annual program, if the numbers earn it.
10Questions
What enrollment leaders ask us first
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We already buy names and leads. What’s different?
Names show who fits a profile; leads show who filled out a form, often for several schools. Moonbrush reads who is researching programs and aid now, and splits each pool by readiness and reason.
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Can we use this for our freshman class?
Not for high school students. Moonbrush holds no data about minors, so it works with adults: returning, transfer, online and graduate learners.
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Can it tell us if there’s demand for a new program?
It shows how many adults in your footprint are researching that field and credential now, and the reasons they’d enroll. That sizes current demand; it isn’t a forecast of your starts.
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How would we know it worked, and how soon?
Every engagement starts as a 60-day proof on your own inquiries, read against a holdout you choose. In that window we read applications started and cost per application; starts follow at census.
11Rules
The rules that shape enrollment marketing
Federal aid rules reach what your vendors say, FERPA reaches your records, and state and telecom rules decide where and how you reach out.
FERPA
FERPA covers the records of anyone who has attended, so a stop-out list is FERPA data and most of an inquiry list isn’t. Either way, records stay in your CRM and only hashed keys cross.
Title IV misrepresentation rules
ED’s rules reach what you and your marketing vendors say about cost, aid, transfer credit and job outcomes. Moonbrush names the question each cohort needs answered; the answer comes from your published policies.
State authorization and licensure
Online programs enroll only where authorized, SARA covers every state but California, and licensure programs must disclose which states’ requirements they meet. Moonbrush builds audiences inside your footprint, by state and ZIP.
TCPA
Autodialed or prerecorded marketing calls and texts need prior express written consent, and people can revoke it any reasonable way. Moonbrush ranks who to call and when; your consent records decide who can be called.
The lines we don’t cross here
Scores guide marketing reach and timing only, never admission, financial aid or any eligibility decision.
Modeled ethnicity is never selectable, in any audience.
Student records stay in your CRM. Only hashed keys cross the match boundary.